In one of the largest expulsions in modern history, four million Afghans face deportation as Iran launches a mass security crackdown after its war with Israel.
Over half a million Afghans have returned from Iran since the start of June, according to the UN migration agency, after Tehran gave undocumented migrants until 6 July to depart.
In March, the Iranian government issued a sweeping deportation order imposing an early July deadline for irregular Afghan nationals to leave the country or face expulsion.
The expulsion drive could affect more than four million people among the over six million Afghans who are estimated to live in Iran.
“Iran’s plan to send four million undocumented Afghans back is poised to be the largest repatriation the region has seen in modern history,” Ibraheem Bahiss, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group’s Asia Program, told The New Arab.
He cited Pakistan’s illegal foreigners repatriation plan launched in late 2023 and aimed largely at Afghans as the closest example. The announced programme puts up to three million Afghan refugees at risk, including about 1.4 million people with Proof of Registration cards.
The number of people crossing the border has increased dramatically from mid-June, with as many as 40,000 entering Afghanistan on some days. By UNHCR counts, the daily number of Afghan returnees peaked at 43,000 on 1 July. Thousands fleeing are driven by the fear of arrest or deportation, tightening border controls, and growing insecurity.
Large numbers of Afghan migrants have lived in Iran since the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, while a recent wave arrived after the Taliban retook power in 2021. Many of them say they experience regular discrimination and are often blamed for Iran’s economic hardships and social problems.
The ICG’s analyst explained that since the Taliban takeover, there’s now a group of Afghans in Iran who see it only as a stopover on their way to Europe. “For many of these Afghans, Iran might be a temporary reset,” Bahiss said.
“If they have the means, they’ll likely risk the journey again, working and saving up before crossing into Turkey and then on to Europe.”
He specified that while for this cohort onward migration is the goal, thousands of others have built a long-term future in Iran.
“With Iran’s repatriation plan and growing xenophobia, Afghans become more vulnerable each time they cross back, often falling prey to smugglers and criminals who profit from their desperation,” Bahiss said.
This latest exodus reflects a wider pattern of Afghans returning from Iran, with some leaving voluntarily but a much larger portion being forced out under deportation orders.
More than 1.4 million people have voluntarily or forcibly returned to Afghanistan so far this year, including over one million people from Iran, according to the UN refugee agency.
The Iranian regime defends its mass deportation campaign on vague national security grounds, citing heightened tensions after its 12-day military confrontation with Israel. Iranian media and social media users have spread claims that some Afghans were arrested on suspicion of spying for Israel, adding to longstanding public unease toward the Afghan community in Iran.
Reports have also emerged of state-affiliated media inciting discrimination and violence by branding Afghans and other minorities as traitors and using language that vilifies them.
The UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Afghanistan said in a post on X that hundreds of Afghans and members of other ethnic and religious minorities have been detained and accused of “espionage”.
In a statement, UN experts raised the alarm about the Iranian authorities’ crackdown following the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and Israel and in the aftermath of the ceasefire. “Post-conflict situations must not be used as an opportunity to suppress dissent and increase repression,” they said.
Even Afghans with valid residency permits and visas are being detained and forcibly expelled in the current wave of deportations, as some Iranian media reports have indicated.
“I know many people who were deported even though they had visas and identification documents,” Dawood, an Afghan citizen who has lived in Iran for years with his family, told the Centre for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI).
Such widespread targeting of Afghans has left many who live and work in Iran in constant fear. Numerous returnees report fleeing abruptly and unprepared, with most facing pressure from authorities, arrests, forced deportations, or financial losses due to hasty departures.
They arrive with almost no belongings and need shelter, clean water, food, legal documentation, education, and healthcare.
Nicole van Batenburg, communications coordinator of the International Federation of Red Cross in Afghanistan, shared with The New Arab some field observations from her visit to the Islam Qala border crossing two weeks ago.
“Most people were coming on buses with just one suitcase, others were arriving by car with a bit more, leaving everything else behind,” said the IFRC’s media staff, describing the masses of returnees crossing from Iran.
She also spoke about the harsh conditions faced by Afghans stuck for hours at the border in scorching 43°C heat as they waited for documentation and registration.
Many of the most difficult testimonies, she added, came from families who left Afghanistan years ago and now feel lost about how to rebuild their lives in a country they know very little about. Many also fear for their children’s future, especially when it comes to girls’ education.
Van Batenburg shared one heartbreaking story from a father who’s been hiding the Taliban’s ban on girls’ education from his daughters. “I can’t tell them they may not be able to go to school. I don’t know how long I can keep lying to them,” the communications specialist reported.
In addition, an Afghan Red Crescent nurse said 80% of the women arriving are deeply traumatised and fearful of their situation.
The situation is particularly dire for single women who must travel with a male guardian, facing the threat of arbitrary arrest, harassment, and severe repression by Taliban authorities.
The Red Cross expects that up to one million more Afghans could be sent back from Iran by the end of the year, as deportations have surged since recent military escalations between Iran and Israel.
Talking to TNA, Jacopo Caridi, country director of the Norwegian Refugee Council in Afghanistan, noted three reasons that have motivated Afghan families to flee Iran.
“First, there’s the fear of war. Then, there’s growing negative sentiment against Afghans. And finally, Iran’s new policy shows a tougher approach to those without proper papers,” he said.
NRC’s country director also pointed to two other factors driving these large-scale returns: neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Iran claim that Afghanistan is now safe and use this to justify new return policies, while Afghan refugees place a heavy burden on host countries’ resources.
He urged governments sending Afghans back to coordinate better with the Afghan authorities and agree on a clear timeframe, as the border can only handle about 10,000 people daily.
Families arrive exhausted and distressed in a country that already struggles to support its population, with two-thirds in need of aid and very limited capacity to absorb large numbers of returnees, given the strain on public services and humanitarian support.
Caridi emphasised that the Afghanistan humanitarian response plan has received just around 20% of its annual funding, with no additional funds expected this year. He estimated that a quarter of Afghans in need will go without assistance.
“There’s no conflict in Afghanistan nowadays, but the poverty level is very, very high. Without international support for the Afghan people, this could become a new tragedy,” he said, anticipating that at least three million people could return by the end of the year.
Bahiss stressed these mass repatriations come at a time when Afghans are already struggling with a severe economic contraction and a shrinking humanitarian sector due to funding cuts.
Aid groups have warned that the sudden influx of so many returnees risks further destabilising Afghanistan, one of the world’s most impoverished countries.
The crisis-battered nation has grappled with integrating waves of returnees from Pakistan and Iran since 2023, deepening one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises after decades of conflict. In 2023, Tehran launched a crackdown on undocumented foreigners they said were living in the country illegally.
With its overburdened capacity, the Afghan government is doing what it can by allocating returning families the only available state lands, far from cities, so they are at least able to build a home.
“There’s a risk the humanitarian system could collapse, leaving returnees with no support as they try to restart a life in a country many barely know,” he said.
Originally published in The New Arab