Amid domestic political deadlock, Sudan‘s military junta wants to demonstrate its authority while sending a message to Washington.
Earlier this month, Sudanese and Israeli officials announced that the two states are moving towards normalising ties following the surprise visit by Israel’s foreign minister Eli Cohen to Khartoum, made with the consent of the United States.
There, he met with Sudan’s military leaders, including ruling general Abdel-Fattah Burhan, who led a coup that overthrew the country’s transitional government in October 2021.
The agreement is expected to be signed in Washington after the planned transfer of power in Sudan to a civilian government that will be formed as part of the ongoing transition process.
Though the top generals finalised a broad accord in December with major political forces to install a new civilian executive after months of protests and a violent crackdown by the army, talks on the transition are still underway, leaving the country stuck in a political deadlock.
Sudan agreed in January 2021 to normalise relations with Israel as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020. But the military coup in the same year derailed the country’s democratic transition following the ouster of long-time autocrat Omar al-Bashir in 2019, stalling efforts to formalise the deal.
Washington then decided to stop any cooperation with the Sudanese military after halting aid following the October coup.
Military rulers in Khartoum have appeared more supportive of establishing relations with Israel than political leaders and have insisted that they plan to hand over power to a civilian government after signing a political agreement. In practice, however, they have been unwilling to cede such authority.
Normalising relations with the Israelis would allow army officials to garner legitimacy abroad and maintain their power, since military rule has no legitimacy in the eyes of the Sudanese people.
“Burhan wants to maintain the idea that he’s a strongman who can bring stability in Sudan and Africa,” Jihad Mashamoun, a Sudanese researcher and political analyst on Sudanese affairs noted, speaking to The New Arab. “So he’s trying to get Israel to lobby on his behalf to the United States”.
The analyst suggested that Sudanese delegations made various trips to Tel Aviv before the coup d’état, primarily because they were seeking Israeli support and wanted to send a message to the US that “Sudan’s generals can be their ally in the region”.
Pro-democracy forces within Sudan perceived Israel’s failure to condemn the army-led overthrow as tacit support for military rule and an intent to proceed with normalisation efforts initiated under the transitional government in 2020.
Both the US and Israel could be willing to go ahead with normalisation in the event there is no transition to civilian rule in Sudan.
Nimrod Goren, Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs at the Middle East Institute (MEI), told The New Arab that the current Israeli cabinet seems less concerned about the transfer of authority to civilians, but that any final accord will have to be in line with what the US sees as important.
Mashamoun argues that Israel would even “prefer” a military leadership to stay because if a civilian government is formed the deal would need to be put to a vote in parliament, which could reject it.
Political parties in Sudan have already expressed opposition to normalisation with Israel. Scores of Sudanese demonstrators protested against the recent diplomatic entente, rejecting any ties with Tel Aviv and insisting that a decision can only be mandated by an elected government.
Haim Koren, former Israeli Ambassador to South Sudan, told The New Arab that the agreement may take time to be finalised, depending on when Sudan’s parliament will be elected.
Sudan’s move towards normalisation breaks with a longstanding policy known as the ‘Three Nos’ (no peace with Israel, no negotiations with Israel, and no recognition of Israel) after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war when Israel occupied East Jerusalem, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and the Golan Heights.
Palestinians have denounced Sudan for deciding to move forward with formalising ties with Israel, viewing it as another betrayal of their rights, enshrined under international law, as other Arab states normalise relations.
Cohen’s public visit to Khartoum was the first officially recognised trip by Sudanese authorities after years of secret contacts and unannounced mutual visits by officials from both countries engaging in security and intelligence-level talks, indicating good relations between Israel’s political-military leadership and senior members of the Sudanese military junta.
For the ruling generals, a deal with Israel could help improve relations with the US and Western countries and facilitate international aid to Sudan’s ailing economy. Burhan even said in a December 2021 interview that normalisation with Israel was “essential for Sudan to return to the international community” after being battered by heavy US pressure and increasing international isolation during Bashir’s time in power.
Washington removed the east African state from its terrorism list at the end of 2020 after nearly 30 years of crippling sanctions that strangled its economy. Some sources claim that one of the conditions the US set to delist Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism and end economic sanctions was taking a sympathetic stance towards Israel.
Tel Aviv’s special alliance with the United States could be advantageous to Khartoum when seeking financial and military assistance from the US leadership.
To Israel, Sudan is critically important given its strategic location between Egypt and Eritrea and along the Red Sea, where Israel has been militarily active. Deepening ties could help it in intelligence-gathering activities, with neighbouring Ethiopia already one of Israel’s most important allies in Africa.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who returned to power late last year as head of the most right-wing government in the country’s history, has made it a foreign policy priority to boost ties across Africa and the Arab world, expressing his intention to widen the Abraham Accords.
According to Goren, the Israeli premier is trying to show that the normalisation process is continuing within the region at a time when his hard-line coalition is coming under much domestic and international criticism for eroding the country’s democracy and further restricting Palestinian rights, which “could cause problems for Israeli-Arab relations”.
Gaining a foothold in Sudan would give Israel a gateway to Africa, potentially broadening the range of its international allies. It would also carry security importance in its frontline against Iran, converging with American interests to strengthen its regional anti-Iran alliance while the Biden administration aims to distance Sudan from the Russian-Chinese-Iranian axis altogether.
“The Biden administration wants to have Sudan as a regional ally of Israel to counter Iran, and it wants to close Sudan’s Red Sea port of Port Sudan to the Russian navy”, Mashamoun told TNA, adding that the US ultimately intends to de-escalate its commitments in the Middle East to focus on China and Russia.
Although the latest discussions in Khartoum included the development of relations in various fields, such as agriculture, energy, health, water, and education, security cooperation seems to be the main rationale behind the deal.
While the junta leaders are presenting the government’s decision as if works in the best interests of Sudan, few benefits can be anticipated for the people of the country, other than lifting some of the economic sanctions and striking trade agreements.
Originally published in The New Arab